Football / Soccer

Football trading – Lay the draw – Automatically

Overview of the Lay the draw Betfair trading strategy This trading strategy is one of the oldest sports trading strategies around and lots of Betfair football trading strategies find their origin in it or variations of it. This football trading strategy is quite simple to understand and pretty popular when trading on Betfair football markets….

Predicting goals – Part one

To get some context into this post read the goal ratings thread…

When you’re looking at a football match, goals are obviously of great importance. Every strategy you deploy on a football match is reliant to some extent on whether a goal is scored or not.

Starting point

The first place to start when you trading in football is to work out if you think there will be a goal, obviously.

Low scoring rates

High quality matches between even teams,

Trading Football on Betfair – Trading under 2.5 goals

The Soccer Mystic profiling tool is a way to help identify opportunities and give you that all important edge when trading soccer matches – it’s packed with a number of features to assist you when trading any of the Match odds, Over/Under or Correct Score markets and will help you pin point what times to get into and out of positions for the most value.

If you prefer the Over/Under markets then Soccer Mystic can offer you some invaluable help, …

Are Arsenal getting better or worse?

Arsenal to finish fourth and win the FA Cup? Maybe not this year then, so it’s Wenger out?

Financial fair play?

I look at many different aspects of football aside from the general market pricing. Being able to read a financial report, a club’s financials can be quite useful for predicting long-term performance. Clubs that carry a lot of debt expense will see their ability to finance the purchase of new players squeezed. Clubs that are flush with finance can …

Trading the FA Cup

It’s the FA Cup third round this weekend and marks just over halfway point in the season.

Has the FA Cup lost it’s ‘magic’?

If you are talking about a smaller club meeting up with a goliath, then perhaps not. But it may be that the smaller club faces a diminished version of said goliath. As they say, Money talks and it doesn’t say much in the FA Cup, apart for smaller teams.

Win a game in the second round …

How to win the Premier League

As the new season is upon us all football fans up and down the country will no doubt have fresh hopes about what the season will bring. Transfers have been done and hopes raised. But what is it that makes a team successful? What is the most defining characteristic?

The defining characteristic

As is well known, a lot of club revenue gets spent on wages to attract top players. This is in the hope that buying talent buys performances. Quite

The footy season – My general approach

Now the football has started again, here is an insight into how I approach the whole season.

Off-season

During off season I am most active on research and new information for the next season. I gather a huge amount of data during the season and during the off-season I analyse it to take ideas forward to the next season. Same story this year.

I started analysing football matches in the 80’s, so I tend to focus on very specific problems …

What’s working in Euro 2016

As we move into the knockout stage, let’s review what’s happened in the Euro’s so far from a market perspective.

Turnover

The first thing to note is that the volumes are down a fair bit from Euro 2012 on Betfair. In 2012 in the group stages the lowest turnover match was £7.7m before the off and £17.8m at the end of the match. This year it was a paltry £1.6m and £3.3m, slightly lower than in 2012! I think it’s best …